text: Russian radio broadcasts began on 4770 kHz from the Western Military District (possibly near Smolensk) nicknamed “The Alarm” for the first time in almost two years. This points to expanded early warning systems tests across a network of communications arrays. When monitoring the traffic, it is mostly radio checks with various call-signs, but some command and control details are revealed by mistake. This particular station appears to be responsible for communicating warnings to Belarusian and Russian forces prior to a NATO military movement to the east. Some observers believe the station moved recently from Smolensk closer to the Ukrainian border based on signal strength and changes to its interference patterns, which is not implausible considering the vast amounts of equipment moved near the border this year.Germany has tacitly agreed to cease gas flows from Russia’s NordStream I & II if Ukraine is invaded further. Their hesitance to agree is the result of a months-long scheme by Russia to reduce natural gas reserves in Europe. Winter storage levels are around 12-15% of capacity, meaning the Germans and several other European nations have mere weeks of fuel reserves. This will become a major geopolitical bargaining chip and touch-point for citizens in support of a conflict against Russia. Quality of life impacts will be felt immediately as rolling blackouts would become commonplace until at least the summer when alternative power sources become viable. Germany’s new Chancellor Scholz is facing an immediate test from Russia. The two nations balance each other in diplomatic circles, which the Russians are hoping to take advantage in a potential return to the Normandy-style negotiations with Ukraine, France, and Germany. These economic and diplomatic investments by Russia will slow roll NATO responses to conflict and possibly preclude Ukraine from joining NATO altogether. Other off-ramps short of war include; formalizing the Union State with Belarus without NATO interference, sacrificing Georgia’s accession plans in favor of Ukraine, or substantial removal of sanctions and a German-led era of noninterference. The leverage is clearly on Russia’s side right now, taking advantage of weak Western leaders, political environment, energy crises, and their proximity to potential targets. – D.M.LOW INTENSITY CONFLICT INTSUMFar Left Activity Rollup & Outlook