text: Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Tuesday, 30 November 2021.TODAY’S BRIEFING:Progressives renew D.C. statehood pushPowell to extend inflation warningChina’s aerial refuelling expands Taiwan threatPentagon raises European troop numbersGOP makes gains in redistricting processIn Focus: Anarchist militants publish “street warfare” manualUpcoming Event CalendarSITUATIONAL AWARENESSDC STATEHOOD: Rep. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC) will introduce a bill to remove the Government Accountability Office’s (GAO) oversight of Washington D.C. The Congresswoman introduced 18 separate measures to create a “fair and equal D.C.,” adding that the “GAO does not have general authority over states and cities, and therefore should not have such authority over D.C.” (AC: More than 50 lobbying organizations support D.C. statehood. Democrats may back these renewed statehood-lite proposals, fearing a substantial loss in the midterms. The proposed statehood measures, which include Puerto Rico, would almost certainly become more popular among Democrats if the GOP retakes the House and Senate in 2022. – D.M.)INFLATION: Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell is set to tell the Senate Banking Committee that the new Omicron variant of COVID could keep inflation higher than previously expected. “[I]t now appears that factors pushing inflation upward will linger well into next year,” according to Powell’s prepared statements. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is also set to again warn the committee that a debt default would “eviscerate our current recovery.” (AC: Fed officials are preparing to raise interest rates in response to higher inflation, which risks slowing down the economy. Readers can find additional details about this risk in the 26 November edition of Economic Early Warning. – M.S.)PLAAF: Over the weekend, China’s PLA Air Force (PLAAF) conducted a complex multi-aircraft training exercise into the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) south of Taiwan. The exercise force included 18 fighter aircraft, five H-6 nuclear capable bombers, two Y-9 electronic warfare aircraft and a Y-20 aerial refueling aircraft. This is the first major exercise which demonstrated a PLAAF aerial refueling capability. (AC: The ability to aerial refuel a 27-aircraft strike package means China now possesses the ability to project power further into the first and second island chains in the Pacific and South China Sea. China is preparing the PLA to force-repatriate the island nation of Taiwan and threaten the disputed territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands. The ability to aerial refuel manned strike aircraft rounds out the military capabilities required to achieve those objectives. Conflict in the Pacific and South China Sea between China and the U.S. will disrupt supply chains in the U.S. and produce shortages of consumer goods, including high-end microchips produced primarily by Taiwan. – M.M.)PENTAGON: The Pentagon completed its Global Posture Review with minor changes in troop disbursement. While the report itself is classified, the Pentagon released a few key details such as lifting the 25,000 “boots on ground” limits in Germany, and improving military construction and infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific region. The review recommends continuing multilateral Pacific exercises to improve partner nation interoperability, without explicitly naming China as the reason. The Pentagon uses this review to shape the President’s National Defense Strategy, Nuclear Posture Review, and project future financial requirements. (AC: Pentagon officials engage with allies, politicians, and lawmakers in classified settings to formalize these posture changes. Full implementation of the review should take 2-3 years. The removal of self-imposed troop limits required German approval, indicating they would like an expanded U.S. footprint to deter conflict in Europe. Indo-Pacific expansion will receive pushback from Beijing, who already militarized the Spratly Islands near the Philippines. – D.M.)