text: Despite all the military movements and saber-rattling, an offensive against Ukraine is unpopular with Russian citizens. This leads the Pentagon to believe Russia will either attempt to goad Ukraine into military action against its separatist regions or attempt a false-flag operation to frame the invasion as defensively necessary. In mid-January, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Russia appears to be preparing for “what we call a false flag operation — an operation designed to look like an attack on … Russian speaking people in Ukraine, again, as an excuse to go in.” British intelligence believes the Russians will attempt a regime change in Ukraine, replacing President Zelenskyy with former Member of Parliament, Yevhen Murayev. The UK also named former Ukrainian officials Serhiy Arbuzov, Andriy Kluyev, Vladimir Sivkovich, and Mykola Azarov as being part of a Russian plot to execute a regime change. British Defense Secretary Wallace told Parliament that “advance teams” from Russia have already infiltrated Ukraine. Wallace said, “We are becoming aware of a significant number of individuals that are assessed to be associated with Russian military advance force operations that currently are located in Ukraine.” This mirrors Russia’s actions in 2014, where special operations forces attempted to secure key strategic targets and disrupted Ukrainian efforts to repel Russian forces by opening multiple contact points within Ukrainian territory.Potential Courses of Action and Impacts:Most Dangerous Course of Action: Following an undetermined provocation, Russia initiates a multi-front invasion from Belarus, the Black Sea, and Ukrainian separatist regions. Russia will execute a strategic bombing campaign against military and civilian targets throughout Ukraine, including the capitol. A simultaneous attack against Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia would likely originate from Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad territory. Russia will likely execute cyber attacks against Ukraine and NATO members, including financial processing services, utilities, cellular communication systems, GPS systems, and oil & gas networks. Following large-scale combat operations, Russia will seek to replace the Ukrainian government with a pro-Moscow administration. Russia will likely require formal European acceptance of the Union State to include Belarus, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine’s separatist/annexed regions.Most Likely Course of Action: Following an undetermined provocation blamed on Ukraine, Russian and Belarusian forces will enter Ukraine from the Belarusian territory. Russian forces will re-enter Ukraine from its own territory and Ukrainian separatist regions. The kinetic provocation will not extend past Ukraine’s borders, and Russia will tacitly accept NATO members’ indirect involvement in supplying arms to Ukraine. Russia will likely require formal European acceptance of the Union State to include Belarus, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine’s separatist/annexed regions. Limited cyber attacks against European and U.S. targets will temporarily affect access to financial systems alongside regional utility disruption executed by proxy groups.Indo-Pacific SITREP: CHINA FOCUSED ON PRIMARY CONFLICT ZONE; EAST CHINA SEAOver the past six months, China’s People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLA Navy) has maintained a continuous deployment of naval combatants, destroyers, and missile corvettes, in the waters east of Taiwan. The PLA Navy vessels are kept on rotations and patrol as far west as the southern Ryukyu Island chain, what Japan calls the Nansei Islands. The deployed forces generally consist of two naval combatants, destroyers, and corvettes, in addition to China Coast Guard large cutters. This enhanced presence is the first continuous deployment into the Pacific’s first island chain for China and the first into the contested territorial waters of the Japanese Ryukyu Islands.