text: The most dangerous course of action (MDCOA) remains a simultaneous military action against Poland and Ukraine, immediately involving U.S. and U.K. troops already in the region. Military provocation against Poland would invoke the Common Defense (Article 5) provision of the NATO Charter. Energy supplies to Europe would cease almost immediately, limiting European ability to respond without severe impacts to civilian populations. Global supply chains face catastrophic disruption as flagged commercial vessels will likely become maritime targets. The E.U. expects massive cyber disruptions targeting governmental and private communications and financial systems. This MDCOA is consistent with current assessments from U.S. Special Operations Command Europe, the unit most likely to immediately respond should conflict erupt.A second scenario would see Russia claiming Ukrainian military movements toward/vicinity of Line of Contact (LOC) as justification/act of war (AOW) for moving conventional troops, weapons, and equipment into separatist regions. In this scenario, Russia would support separatist requests for military assistance and push the contested territory up to the Dnieper River with Belarusian support from the north.At the same time, this could preclude NATO involvement. Strategic territorial targets include the landmass between Mariupol and the Dnieper River, securing the Sea of Azov for Russia. This action would likely result in formal Russian territorial expansion to include Donetsk, Kherson Luhansk, and Zaporizhia (image below).A third option includes Russian claims of military assistance from NATO members to Ukraine is an act of war. This action is moderately likely as NATO continues to state that Russia has no grounds to prevent Ukraine’s accession. Individual member state action in support of Ukraine could prompt an official NATO military response, but the Russians are betting on disunity within the alliance.