text: Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Tuesday, 08 February 2022.TODAY’S BRIEFING:Global food prices near historic recordRNC comments raise political violence concernsNIJ study links mass shooters to mental healthTrucker union pushes vaccine exemptionMidstream strategy for supply chain reliefChinese company faces federal charges for theftHazards WarningLIC Summary/ INTSUMSITUATIONAL AWARENESSGLOBAL FOOD PRICES NEAR HISTORIC RECORD: The United Nations Food and Agriculture (FAO) reported that food prices have risen significantly over the last year to almost the highest recorded. Significant price rises were seen in grain by 12.5%. Grain costs have a high potential to spike with an invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine is the fifth-largest global exporter of winter wheat. The highest price increases were seen in meat and vegetable oil, rising 17.3% and 33.9% respectively from the previous year. Key factors for persistent high prices in North America are supply chain bottlenecks and inflation increasing the cost of production and transportation. (Analyst Comment: Near-term forecasts expect to continue seeing higher food prices. Supply constraints with persistent high demand and inflation have continued to influence food prices. Costs to transport have also risen due to current gas prices. Gas and grain prices are expected to see the highest jump if Russia invades Ukraine this month. – D.F.)RNC COMMENTS RAISE POLITICAL VIOLENCE CONCERNS: During a Republican National Committee event, the party chair criticized Jan 6 investigations saying there is a “persecution of ordinary citizens who engaged in legitimate political discourse that had nothing to do with violence at the Capitol.” Media outlets are publishing opinion-pieces quoting lawmakers from both parties decrying the Capitol breach, while casting McDaniel’s comments as approving of the violence. (AC: The comments will likely be interpreted by the Far Left as a pretext for more political violence “in response” to perceived right wing extremism. While Republican lawmakers have quieted on public statements about the Capitol Hill protests, Democrats will attempt to keep the issue top of mind for the midterms. Expect campaign advertisements from both parties to exploit fear, uncertainty, and doubt over events like the Capitol breach and Floyd’s Rebellion. The use of this appeal has a high likelihood of success and could drive extremists to reignite political violence. – D.M.)NIJ STUDY LINKS MASS SHOOTERS TO MENTAL HEALTH: A National Institute of Justice (NIJ) supported study reviewed mass shootings in the U.S. from 1966 to 2019. Key findings were that 20% of the mass shootings were from 2014-2019, with death tolls per year rising from eight to 51 per year. Suicidal mental health factors strongly correlated to shooters, with 39% found in adults, 92% in student K-12, and 100% found in college or university students. Firearms used in mass shootings were primarily pistols, at over three-quarters, with rifles used in a quarter of recorded incidents. (AC: The study findings can be used by gun control advocates as justification for “red flag” laws to filter out those determined too unstable to possess firearms. The study provides few recommendations on gun control policy with examples of stolen weapons unsecured in homes used in mass shootings; however, the findings focus on mental health indicators. – D.F.)