text: Russia-NATO SITREP: NEW U.S.- RUSSIA PHONE CALLS, REVERSED GAS FLOWS & CYBER ATTACKSRussia’s President Putin requested a phone call with President Biden just before New Year’s. The call lasted around 50 minutes with no major announcements; each side called for de-escalation and diplomacy. A week of diplomatic talks between NATO, Russia, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and the U.S. begins on 10 Jan. These talks are unlikely to be productive as the Russian demands are frankly ridiculous but considered a package deal. Gas from the Yamal pipeline continues a two-week trend of reversed flows, driving up energy prices across Europe. Gazprom’s Yamal pipeline accounts for around 1/6th of Europe’s imported gas, so the reversal is not catastrophic but is designed to send a message to the West. Equipment arrivals to the Ukrainian border appear to be slowing, but camp construction and facility expansion at existing staging areas is ongoing. Lodging and vehicle yards remain under construction, indicating their persistent presence in the region in an attempt to coerce Ukraine and the West into some level of compliance. Ukraine’s new law, “Fundamentals of National Resistance,” went into effect on 1 January. This new law lays out the duties, hierarchy, and responsibilities of Territorial Defense Forces and paramilitary resistance organizations designed to activate when Russia invades. In Russian state media, the Luhansk People’s Republic forces claim Ukrainian military vehicles are arriving in Donbas. The LPR representatives blamed Ukrainian electronic warfare units for jamming OSCE drone flights, which the OSCE blamed on Russian-backed forces attempting to hide equipment transfers.Russia is suspected of executing a cyber attack against the UK Defense University in March ‘21. Like many cyber attacks, the government didn’t announce anything publicly, but “significant damage” to the university’s IT infrastructure diverted funds away from operations. Retired Air Marshal Stringer said, “What could we be spending the money on that we’ve had to bring forward to rebuild the network? There are not bodies in the streets but there’s still been some damage done.” Cyber attacks fall squarely within gray zone conflict, which the British recognize could lead to escalating actions against malign cyber actors. Russia remains very active in the European and American cyber environment. Potential impacts include internet outages, financial system disruptions, energy disruptions, and personal or medical information loss. – D.M.Indo-Pacific SITREP: CHINA CARRIER STRIKE GROUP TRAINING, INDIA QUIETLY LAUNCHES THIRD NUCLEAR MISSILE SUBMARINEThe Chinese PLA Navy (PLAN) Liaoning Carrier Task Group completed major combat training exercises at sea and returned to the port of Qingdao on Friday. The Task Group conducted a three-week exercise in the East China Sea and Western Pacific and made a passage through Japan’s Miyako Straits. The exercise mirrored U.S. Carrier Task Force exercises and included integrated naval maneuvering with Task Group naval combatants, search and rescue operations, anti-submarine operations, and high-tempo day and night flight operations with carrier-based J-15 fighter jets. The Miyako Strait is also known as the Kerama Gap and lies in Japan’s territorial waters between the Japanese Islands of Miyako and Okinawa. The U.S. has a significant military presence on the island of Okinawa with the III Marine Expeditionary Force and the USAF 18th Air Wing at Kadena Air Base. China has, in the past, contested Japan’s claim on the Ryukyu Island chain and the nearby Senkaku islands.