text: Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Tuesday, 08 March 2022.TODAY’S BRIEFING:Poll: 38% of Americans would flee major warU.S. hypersonic program suffers major setbackRussian proposes fertilizer export banCongress issues warning on Navy budgetHazards WarningInFocus: Drone Proliferation In Russia-Ukraine Conflict & Homeland Security ImplicationsFar Left Activity Rollup & OutlookSITUATIONAL AWARENESSPOLL: 38% OF AMERICANS WOULD FLEE MAJOR WAR: According to a Quinnipiac poll published yesterday, 55% of Americans said they would “stay and fight” if faced with a foreign invasion, similar to the situation in Ukraine, while 38% say they would flee the country. A majority of Democrats and Republicans reported they would stay to fight (68% to 52%), while just 25% of Republicans and 40% of Democrats said they would flee. (Analyst Comment: While the United States doesn’t face a conventional invasion like Ukraine, the country does face increasing risk of domestic conflict this decade. The 2024 election season represents the next known period where domestic strife is likely to increase. Although a conventional war is unlikely, there are scenarios where sustained low intensity conflict could create a regional crisis for internally displaced persons. – M.S.) U.S. HYPERSONIC WEAPONS PROGRAM SUFFERS MAJOR SETBACK: U.S. defense contractor Lockheed Martin experienced another hypersonic weapons program setback after its air-launched missile suffered three consecutive test failures. The failures occurred during testing the missile’s booster motor, which now puts the entire weapons program on an untenable schedule to meet the initial production deadline of 30 September. Russia and China successfully fielded hypersonic weapons and have routinely tested variations in the past several months. China recently launched a new type of hypersonic weapon that flew 25,000 miles while circumnavigating the earth before descending onto its target in the Pacific Ocean. Russia successfully launched a hypersonic weapon during a well-publicized training exercise prior to the start of its invasion of Ukraine. (AC: The U.S. is well behind Russia and China in the development of hypersonic weapons systems after ignoring the emerging technology for decades. Hypersonic weapons are considered “game changers” because their high speed and maneuverability make intercepting them with current missile defense technology extremely difficult, if not impossible. Given the history of DoD acquisitions programs, it is unlikely a working hypersonic weapon will be fielded by Sept 30th. – M.M.)RUSSIA PROPOSES FERTILIZER EXPORT BAN: Last week, Russia’s trade and industry ministry recommended fertilizer producers temporarily halt exports. The proposed suspension is another signal that Western sanctions will impact global food prices. Russia produces more than 50 million tonnes of fertilizers per year, making up 13% of the total global supply. The suspension will significantly be felt in South America. 20% of Brazil’s fertilizer imports come from Russia, which is notable as Brazil provides food to approximately 10% of the world population. (AC: Fertilizer prices worldwide have already been rising due to pandemic supply chain bottlenecks and rising inflation. Supply disruptions from the war in Ukraine have already led Latin American countries to search for new fertilizer suppliers. If Russia follows through with halting fertilizer exports, expect domestic food prices to rise. – D.F.)