text: Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Wednesday, 08 June 2022.TODAY’S BRIEFING:READ TIME: 6 min 30 secondsRussia-NATO INTSUMIndo-Pacific INTSUMGeopolitical INSTUMDomestic INSTUMLIC Activity Rollup & OutlookEARLY WARNINGNATO-RUSSIA INTSUMRUSSIA VOTES OUT HUMAN RIGHTS COURT: Russia’s parliament passed two bills removing the European Court on Human Rights’ (ECHR) authority in Russia. The ECHR will formally lose its ability to hear cases brought by Russians on 15 March 2023. Russia’s spotty track record with human rights resulted in several judgments against the Kremlin, causing them to leave the organization. Former President Medvedev said Russia can now restore its death penalty, which the ECHR didn’t allow. (Analyst Comment: Russia’s continued isolation from the international community provides opportunities for hardliners inside Putin’s orbit to continue political assassinations and power consolidation. This may be to preserve official “support” at home for the war in Ukraine. Leaving the court may provide Russian intelligence services with the domestic legal framework to pursue extrajudicial actions against Western officials abroad, coinciding with statements by Russian officials and media to the same end. – D.M.)POLAND SENDING 60 HOWITZERS TO UKRAINE: Poland’s government announced it will send around $650 billion in military assistance to Ukraine, taking the form of 60 155mm Krab self-propelled howitzers. The new artillery marks Poland’s largest arms export deal in decades and will provide Ukraine with a 40km range in their fight with Russian forces. (AC: The additional howitzers will complement the 18 Krabs Poland sent to Ukraine earlier this year. Ongoing Western weapons shipments to Ukraine are increasingly becoming a sticking point with Russia. Expect these and other supplies to be targeted by Russian forces during delivery. – D.M.)US-CHINA/INDO-PACIFIC INTSUMBEIJING; AUSTRALIAN MILITARY AIRCRAFT IN SOUTH CHINA SEA A THREAT: A Chinese defense ministry spokesman said Tuesday that Australian military aircraft operating in the South China Sea would be considered a security threat. The comments come after Chinese fighters intercepted an Australian military P-8 maritime patrol plane in what Australian officials called a dangerously unsafe and aggressive manner. Australian authorities claimed the P-8 was conducting routine maritime surveillance activity in international airspace at the time of the incident. (AC: China still maintains its territorial claims to the South China Sea and the Nine Dash-Line, although those claims were declared invalid by an International Tribunal in the Hague. Australia and China have had strained relations over China’s growing expansion in the region. This latest incident, following closely on the heels of a similar encounter between China and Canada last week, will likely continue to increase tensions in the region. – M.M.)SRI LANKA PLEADS WITH U.N. FOR ASSISTANCE: Sri Lanka, racked by civil unrest over rising prices and shortages of food and fuel, has asked the United Nations for assistance in acquiring $6 billion in order to remain solvent over the next six months. Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said in a speech to parliament on Tuesday that the U.N. pledged to provide an immediate $48 million over four months to help the heavily indebted nation. Sri Lanka has suspended all foreign debt payments in order to prioritize funding imports to feed its population. China, which had promised new loans to help restructure Sri Lankan debt, has yet to move on its promises. On Tuesday, India provided a $55 million line of credit to purchase fertilizer for Sri Lankan farmers during the current growing season. (Sri Lanka remains on the brink of economic collapse over massive sovereign debt and the inability to provide sufficient food and fuel to its population. Although it is currently negotiating a $3 billion bailout loan from the International Monetary Fund, it is doubtful Sri Lanka could return to prosperity for years to come. – M.M.)GEOPOLITICAL INTSUM