text: Russia-NATO SITREP: Russia braces for sanctions, Germany still NATO’s weak linkBelarus is preparing to leave SWIFT for Russia’s System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS). This is in anticipation of expanded sanctions from the West. The U.S. has not said publicly they’re pursuing SWIFT cutoff, but Russia and Belarus appear to be preparing for it. This could indicate further military action, such as an invasion of Ukraine, by Russia and/or Belarus. Germany remains a key exploitable NATO member for Russia, by way of their energy policies. The Germans shut down 11 more coal plants, but are also saying they will delay the certification of NordStream 2 and possibly stop flows on NordStream 1 if Russia acts on Ukraine. One-year natural gas prices are over 200€ per MWh (or $225), indicating energy speculators are bracing for substantial disruptions. Germany’s new Foreign Minister Baerbock told Russia’s Lavrov an invasion would bring “massive consequences,” but also stipulated they will be economic and diplomatic in nature. A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers recently visited Ukraine. Following their return, Rep. Moulton (D-MA) said, “If Putin invades, I want him to know he’ll have trouble buying a soda from a vending machine in the next 5 minutes.” Other lawmaker statements included “deep concern” about the timeline for invasion. The statements suggest Congress will push the President to increase arms sales and delivery to Ukraine. (AC: As Biden recently indicated, a conventional U.S. confrontation with Russia is “not on the table” right now. The threat of diplomatic or economic sanctions are what the majority of Western countries are going with. The past use of sanctions did little to stem Russian military incursions into Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014. The Western nations do not want kinetic conflict with Russia and prefer economic sanctions. Russia also prefers sanctions, as they did not deter past operations. Despite strong public statements by the new German government, the Russians likely view their energy market as a way to maintain leverage. This could prevent a NATO military response in Ukraine, leaving individual nations to assist. A gas stoppage would increase global energy prices, hitting American pocketbooks quickly. – D.M.)Indo-Pacific SITREP: U.S. sanctions regime begins as China prepares response China warned the U.S. that it would strike back in response to its recent sanctions against Chinese officials and entities tied to human rights abuses in Xinjiang. Chinese authorities, instead, said they were battling “violence, terrorism, separatism and religious extremist forces.” One of the Chinese businesses targeted by new U.S. sanctions is the artificial intelligence company SenseTime, which developed facial recognition systems that target specific ethnicities, including Muslim Uyghurs. Also on the sanctions front, yesterday Japanese officials announced that they are considering participating in the U.S. boycott of the 2022 Beijing Olympics to protest China’s record on human rights. This week, China and Russia will hold a virtual summit which will include dialogue between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping on how to deal with U.S. sanctions and policies that impact the two nations. China is employing foreign social media influencers as part of a “global propaganda push” to whitewash its treatment of religious minority Uyghurs in Xinjiang province. According to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), social media influencers from western countries are being invited to visit China for state-backed tours where they are given video and other content to amplify the CCP narrative on Xinjiang province. The content published by the influencers is then promoted by Chinese government and communist party representatives.