text: Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning Monday, 13 December 2021.TODAY’S BRIEFING:Taiwan warns of Chinese invasion by 2025House, Senate to expand debt limitRussia moves additional air defense to Ukrainian borderFed & Treasury shift towards social justiceIn Focus: Anarchists post instructions for winter of disruptionFar Left Activity Rollup & OutlookSITUATIONAL AWARENESSTAIWAN WARNS OF CHINESE INVASION: A new report from the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense assesses that China would likely use one of its frequent joint exercises to launch a full scale invasion of Taiwan before 2025. The defense minister also reported that Taiwan has hardened its defenses of ports and airfields that China would need to facilitate an invasion. (AC: The Defense Policy Board is scheduled to hold a classified meeting this week to discuss Chinese military modernization, updates to the National Defense Strategy, and to “red team” a conflict with China. – M.S.)HOUSE, SENATE TO RAISE DEBT LIMIT: The Senate is set to take up a measure this week that will raise the debt limit and prevent the U.S. from defaulting on over $29 trillion in loans. Congress is expected to raise the debt cap to over $30 trillion in order to avoid repeating debt limit legislation prior to next year’s midterm elections. (AC: The debt limit will likely be raised without Republican support in the Senate through the use of a legislative loophole. The House of Representatives is set to address the debt limit bill once it leaves the Senate. Raising the debt limit will bring U.S. debt versus GDP to over 134%, a potentially unsustainable level of debt that could lead to higher inflation and lower economic growth. – M.M.)RUSSIA MOVES AIR DEFENSE TO BORDER REGION: Russian BUK-M1 air defense systems were sighted on rail cars deploying into the border region with Ukraine. Russia continues to deploy military forces to the Ukraine border. Ukrainian military units are now deployed in fighting positions along the borders of Ukraine’s breakaway regions controlled by Russia-backed separatists. (AC: The BUK-M1 is the same air defense system that shot down a Malaysian airliner in 2014 when it was fired from a Russian separatist region of Ukraine. These mid-range missile systems are a key pre-invasion indicator that Russia intends to invade Ukraine. If escalated by the Biden administration, the invasion could spill over into the U.S. in the form of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure. – M.M.)FED & TREASURY ACTIVITIES: The Federal Reserve will wrap up its December meeting on Wednesday as they work to finalize policy on raising interest rates and tapering monthly asset purchases. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is reportedly facing pressure from the Biden administration to better use fiscal policy to combat climate change. “We’re not an environmental agency, but we can play and are trying to play a very significant role in contributing to our country and the globe in addressing this,” Yellen told reporters. Treasury officials are set to publish a report on how major banks can do more on “climate risk,” while earlier this year, Treasury created a “Climate Hub” office to explore “1) climate transition finance, 2) climate-related economic and tax policy, and 3) climate-related financial risks.” (AC: Social and economic justice are a priority for the Biden administration, and have remained a focus since the Biden economic transition team was active. By nominating Lael Brainard to Federal Vice Chair, Biden is setting up the Fed to adopt stronger social justice policies if/when Brainard is nominated to serve as Fed chair. –