text: With current high-to-extreme food insecurity, regions at risk are Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. The key reasons for their high vulnerability are due to production disruptions resulting from environmental degradation, conflict, and disease, which will result in social disruption, political turmoil, or conflict. Food insecurity due to low purchasing power includes Latin America, and Small Island states to the list; however, low purchasing power will have less impact on the Middle East. Inflation will disproportionately impact the extremely poor and will impede agricultural development in these regions due to cost.Principle demand factors will include urbanization and income growth in emerging and developing countries which will leave less human labor for agriculture . Due to rapid expansion of urban centers, “95 percent of the world’s population growth will occur in developing nations” by 2035. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that “the world will need to produce 60% more food by 2050”. Urbanization will increase global demand levels for meat which are forecasted to almost double in 2030 to from 2015 demand levels. Feed demand increase for animals will drive crop production to use genetically engineered crops that have had resistance in smaller scale agriculture production regions of the world.Source: DNI IC AssessmentSupply factors that will impact food production are weather, rate of agricultural technology development, deployment of that technology, resource availability, and government policy. Instability can be injected into each of these factors. The intelligence summary forecasts that “lower-level conflict is the most likely form of instability.” Interstate conflict for food is unlikely near-term; however, small-scale skirmishes will rise due to natural resource constraints. Additionally, governments and nongovernmental actors use food security as a political tool and do not seek increased food security for all their population. Additionally, interdependencies among the global food supply chain have exposed vulnerabilities a nation faces with the recent example of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Wheat supplies are facing disruptions, and continuous conflict strains supplies as a sanction tool. In 2010, Russia decided to ban its grain exports which increased global prices by 46% the following month.Wheat prices remain volatile as war rages in Ukraine.The world currently produces sufficient supply; however, distribution and access are the main problems to solve. Due to limited arable land, improvements to food access will require “reducing crop and food waste, generating off-farm income activities, conducting research into minor crops, and fostering technical education in agriculture.” Investments in skilled labor are needed to manage technical innovations in agriculture. For long-term sustainment, host governments and local communities need to be able to maintain and repair tools while adhering to higher sanitation standards against disease. Increased funding for food waste and reduction research is needed as “less than 5 percent of all agricultural research and development” is spent on mitigating waste. — D.F.LOW INTENSITY CONFLICT INTSUMFar Left Activity Rollup & OutlookPACIFICFUTUREPortland, OregonSize: 60Activity: Portland Antifa coordinate “stop the bleed” classes for protestors. Training will include lecture, hands on, and participants will leave with an IFAK. Training will also exclusively cover gun shots.Location: Portland, OregonTime: 1430 PST; Friday, 18 MARSeattle, WashingtonSize: TBDActivity: Seattle Black Anarcho Coalition will conduct an education night to teach participants strategy for protesting and guided discussion on navigating on the ground safety, basic first aid, and gunshot wounds and trauma. Location: 1635 11th Ave, Seattle, WA 98122Time: 1800 PST; Saturday, 19 MARPortland, OregonSize: TBDActivity: Anarchists plan a mutual aid fair in Portland at Lents Park.