text: Once consolidated on their objectives, China would replace the current Taiwan leadership with a pro-China reunification government and give an ultimatum to the population to accept the new status quo and cease hostilities. China will likely try to minimize heavy fighting in the built-up urban areas of Taipei and limit the damage to civilian infrastructure. Expect China to use the seized islands surrounding Taiwan to create a security zone and blockade Taiwan until order is restored. China could achieve its major military objectives in less than five days. The U.S. could expect indications and warnings of 7-10 days. Unless the U.S. has significant forces prepositioned in close proximity to Taiwan, a full-scale invasion of Taiwan is essentially a fait accompli. This MDCOA could be conducted coincident to, or in echelon with, a Russian invasion of Ukraine but is not required for success. In fact, due to the overwhelming amount of military forces available to China, all of which are based in close proximity to Taiwan, the MDCOA gains very little from timing with a Russian invasion of Ukraine.Most Likely Course of Action: China’s most likely course of action remains a limited invasion of islands surrounding Taiwan combined with a follow-on blockade and coercive political solution to reunification. Expect gray zone activity such as cyberattacks and increased information operations to precede military actions, followed closely by amphibious and airborne assaults and seize the islands surrounding Taiwan in the Pacific first island chain. These include the remainder of the Paracels, Pratas, Senkakus, and possibly southern Ryukyus. U.S. and Japanese military units in the south Ryukyus and any U.S. or allied naval forces in proximity to Taiwan could be hit with long-range precision fires and manned aircraft strike packages, although in this MLCOA China would attempt to avoid direct conflict with the U.S. China might also bypass islands like Ishigaki and Yonaguni that host U.S. and Japanese military outposts to avoid prematurely escalating the conflict.With Taiwan essentially surrounded, China could put a sea and air embargo and give Taiwan’s government terms for reunification. This could be timed with Russian actions against Ukraine to complicate the U.S. decision matrix in formulating a response. Given current circumstances, this would likely occur in echelon to a Russian invasion of Ukraine sometime immediately after the Beijing Olympics. In this scenario, China would bet that the U.S. would not come to Taiwan’s aid and seek a negotiated settlement … perhaps the return of a portion of the Senkaku or Nansei islands to Japan in exchange for a free hand in bringing Taiwan under China’s control. In this coercion-by-embargo scenario, China’s goal would be to force the U.S. hand on Taiwan publicly. Washington’s expected lack of military response would undermine and demoralize any Taiwanese ideas about resistance and lead Taiwan to accept a Chinese reunification proposal sprinkled with insincere guarantees of limited autonomy. This is the most likely course of action because it avoids all-out armed conflict in the Pacific and keeps commerce flowing between China and the West. Executing this COA in the next 60-90 days capitalizes diminished leadership in Washington and exploits the humiliating U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and chaos resulting from a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the MLCOA, China could achieve its primary military objectives in less than 24 hours. In this scenario, due to the high mobility of airborne and amphibious forces, the U.S. could receive as little as 24 hours to a probable maximum of 10 days of indications and warnings. Clearly, this short timeline could preclude any reinforcing actions by the U.S. or other Pacific allies. If the U.S. or its allies intervene, expect China to use its anti-access and area denial capabilities to attack naval formations and military bases in the conflict zone. Should Taiwan refuse to accept terms for reunification, expect China to move to the MDCOA above.