text: Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Tuesday, 10 May 2022.TODAY’S BRIEFING:READING TIME: 6 minutes, 14 secondsRussia-NATO INTSUMIndo-Pacific INTSUMGeopolitical INSTUMDomestic INSTUMLIC Activity Rollup & OutlookUpcoming Event CalendarEARLY WARNINGNATO-RUSSIA INTSUMDCIA: PUTIN CAN’T AFFORD TO LOSE: Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns said Russian President Putin has “a frame of mind in which he doesn’t believe he can afford to lose… I think he’s convinced right now that doubling down still will enable him to make progress [in Ukraine].” Burns assesses the Russian military remains behind schedule even after consolidating its forces for a coastal and westward offensive from Crimea and Donbas. (Analyst Comment: Director Burns seems to imply Russia will use nuclear weapons if they lose in Ukraine. This is consistent with Russia’s nuclear doctrine and public statements by Putin and Kremlin officials. Russia’s struggle to isolate southern Ukraine in the near term doesn’t remove the possibility of a future military incursion. The Russian military’s size gives Putin “cushion” to absorb losses and protract the conflict, attriting Ukrainian forces, civilians, and economy along the way. – D.M.)RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR COVERED IN ‘BLOOD’: During a Victory Day ceremony in Warsaw, protestors threw a “red substance” at Russia’s ambassador to Poland. The protestors carried Ukrainian flags and shouted “fascist” and “murderer” at Ambassador Andreev before throwing the liquid at him. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the protests “confirm what is already clear: The West has set a course to revive Nazism.” (AC: This is a serious diplomatic incident, one in which Russia will maximize its propaganda efforts at home to justify its ongoing war in Ukraine. Putin’s and other Russian officials’ previous statements about Western Nazism or globalism may justify future strikes against materiel convoys, special operators in Ukraine, or cyberattacks against NATO members. A kinetic strike against Poland remains unlikely unless Belarus becomes a belligerent and is somehow better prepared than Russia for combat. – D.M.)MORE RUSSIAN ANTI-AIR IN CRIMEA: Satellite imagery shows an increase in Russian anti-air forces on Crimea. Observers believe an influx of Smerch multiple-launch rocket systems, S-300 anti-air systems, or Iskander missile launchers in Filativka could signal a new Russian advance in southern and eastern Ukraine. The satellite images also show nearly 200 combat armored vehicles of various types, possibly command and control elements. (AC: When the tarps come off these vehicles, the type will give insight into Russia’s direction. While Ukraine’s air force remains intact, its ability to strike in Donbas or Crimea is very limited. New S-300s may push Ukrainian air forces back from defending Odesa or Mykolaiv for an amphibious and ground assault on coastal Ukraine. Smerch or Iskander deployments would indicate an emphasis on ground combat and tactical anti-air capabilities. This isn’t an either/or scenario; Russia is likely to use a combination of offset munitions to provide cover for advancing ground troops. – D.M.)RUSSIA’S BLACK SEA AMBITIONS: The naval component of the Ukraine war is key to Russia’s strategic goals in the Black and Mediterranean Seas. Russia aims to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea, rendering control of the area to Russia. (AC: Control over the Black Sea is likely to be difficult as NATO freedom of navigation patrols are frequent. Should Russia succeed in isolating Ukraine from the sea, NATO would certainly increase its maritime presence in the Black Sea, raising the risk of confrontation with Russia. – D.M.)US-CHINA/INDO-PACIFIC INTSUM