text: NEW EMISSIONS STANDARDS TO INCREASE COSTS, SLOW GLOBAL TRADE: Starting next year, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) will mandate reductions in emissions from transport ships, such as bulkers and container ships. Shipping firms will have to report emissions and take steps to show that emissions are dropping. (AC: Analysts say that reducing speed will be key for older, less fuel efficient ships to cut emissions, which means longer transport times. The push for net zero emissions will lead to higher costs and longer build times for global shipping firms in pursuit of cleaner fuel technologies. Banks are also looking at ESG standards to justify curbing financing opportunities to shipping firms with poor environmental scores. – M.S.)GEOSTRATEGIC INTSUMBELARUS SAYS NATO PREPARING FOR WAR: Belarusian President Lukashenko said NATO is preparing for war “on the East.” “Western countries are actively reconnoitering in the air and on the ground, developing military logistics, holding exercises, redeploying hardware and reserves from other regions, and increasing military budgets,” Lukashenko said. At the same time, Belarusian troops are participating in a mobilization exercise near the Ukrainian border. – D.M.BRAZIL TO START CORN EXPORTS TO CHINA: Brazilian officials announced that both sides are working on a deal for the Chinese to start buying Brazilian corn. According to one official, China already buys 80% of Brazil’s soy exports and roughly half of beef exports. (AC: Brazil is China’s geostrategic crown jewel – they’re a major non-NATO U.S. ally, South America’s largest economy and an agricultural powerhouse. Brazil also produces lots of what American farmers do, making Brazil a potential replacement for U.S. agricultural exports to China. According to open source reports, Brazil is the recipient of about half of Chinese foreign investment in South America. Although current President Jair Bolsonaro has expressed interest in better relations with the United States, should his October challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva win, Lula could play both sides and also develop stronger ties with China, as we’ve seen other countries do. Expect a lot more of this East vs West bifurcation as the U.S. and China decouple into a new Cold War. – M.S.)U.S. TO ESTABLISH TWO NEW EMBASSIES IN PACIFIC REGION: Vice President Kamala Harris announced yesterday that the United States will open new embassies in Tonga and Kiribati along with increased aid to the region. Additionally, the U.S. pledged $600 million in funding to counter China’s growing influence among PIF member states. According to officials, the U.S. will also relaunch its Peace Corps program in the region. (AC: The United States is playing “catch up” in the Pacific following China’s security pact with the Solomon Islands. A key part of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “Global Security Initiative” is Asian and Pacific unity, so expect Chinese officials to continue building bilateral relationships with island nations that not only could become Chinese military or logistics bases but could also push back against a U.S. military presence in the region as China continues to accuse the United States of disturbing regional peace and stability. – M.S.)