text: Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Friday, 10 December 2021.TODAY’S BRIEFING:House Democrats could change balance of political landscapeUkraine resigns itself to war with Russia, opens armoriesApple’s secret $275 billion deal with ChinaInflation hits 40-yr highIn Focus: Indo-Pacific SITREPFar Left Activity Rollup & OutlookSITUATIONAL AWARENESSPROTECT OUR DEMOCRACY ACT: The House passed HR 5314 on a 220-208 vote. The bill addresses presidential pardons, self-pardons, and removes the statute of limitations for federal offense by the president or vice president. In addition, the bill expands Congressional subpoena power, requires time limits on emergency declarations, imposes a requirement of 10 years of tax returns to the Federal Election Commission for presidential candidates, forces campaigns to disclose foreign contacts, and prohibits foreign campaign support through blackmail. (AC: Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) introduced this bill, which is clearly aimed at heading off another presidential candidacy by former President Trump. Regardless of the party in control of Congress, the Justice Department or Federal Elections Commission could use new authority in this bill to stymy political opposition through claims of foreign ties. Enactment of this bill would substantially alter the political landscape, helping the party in power to retain power. – D.M.)UKRAINE PREPARES FOR INVASION: Ukrainian defense officials are planning on opening military weapons facilities to civilians in the event of another Russian invasion. The military is already training volunteer community defense forces for resistance operations. Russia’s Putin said the situation in Donbass resembles a genocide, while Russian General Gerasimov promised to “suppress” any movement against separatist regions. Separately, natural gas flows from Belarus to Germany ceased without explanation on 1 December. (AC: Russian officials are looking for any excuse to start the conflict, but the genocide claims are unique and may be the justification for war. Russia is likely to substantially reduce gas flows to Western Europe before launching an invasion in order to degrade economic responses. This will increase global energy prices and destabilize financial markets, at a minimum. – D.M.)APPLE SIDES WITH CHINA: Apple’s reported US$275 billion investment in China is raising questions after widespread news reports about the tech giant’s lobbying efforts against the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act. Apple is facing scrutiny after CEO Tim Cook personally lobbied Chinese officials to secure a secretive deal involving investments in the country as part of concessions to Chinese regulators. The promised investments include using more components from Chinese suppliers, signing deals with Chinese software companies, collaborating with Chinese universities in research and development, and investing directly in Chinese tech firms. (AC: The Apple deal is an example of the difficulty in decoupling the U.S. economy from China and protecting U.S. research and development from the Chinese government. Apple CEO Tim Cook’s dealings with China are an example of the danger the American donor-class poses to the foreign policy interests of the U.S. – M.M.)INCREASED INFLATION: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November shows that inflation has increased to 6.8%, a 0.6% increase from October. The majority of the increase comes from energy prices, which have risen 33.3% since November of 2020. This marks the highest level of inflation since 1982. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy commodities, increased by 0.5% in November to 4.9%. Food prices increased 0.7% in November and have increased 6.1% since last November, according to the BLS. (AC: Forecasts show inflation increasing at least through Q1 of 2022. Opposing views are present for Q2, but some economists predict that inflation will accelerate throughout Q2, with relief coming no sooner than June or July.