text: Future Potential Conflict ZoneBoth Taiwanese and Japanese defense experts believe the PLA Navy’s recent sustained naval presence east of Taiwan means China is preparing for a potential future war over Taiwan. China views control of the first island chain, which contains both Taiwan and Japan, as critical to its ability to project power farther into the East China Sea and the Western Pacific. The presence of PLA Navy combatants on the east coast of Taiwan is a significant threat to Taiwan’s fortified positions on its east coast. These airbases and hardened shelters are where Taiwan plans to reposition its air force and key military units during pre-invasion fires by the PLA. Additionally, the extensive patrols into the southern Ryukus mean China is likely intent on seizing the Nansei islands, such as Ishigaki and Yonaguni and the Senkaku islands, which China also claims. Ishigaki and Yonaguni host Japanese Self Defense Force hardened missile and High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) bases, Japanese Coast Guard bases, and will soon be the site of U.S. Marine infantry battalions deployed from Okinawa. This area east of Taiwan, southwest of Okinawa, and west of the Philippines is the most likely location for armed conflict between China, the U.S., and Japan.High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS)In addition to the continuous patrols by PLA Navy destroyers and corvettes, in November, during a virtual democracy summit hosted by the U.S. in which Taiwan officials participated along with other Pacific allies, China deployed two Type 71 amphibious transport dock ships east of Taiwan in the vicinity of the Japanese island of Yonaguni. Like the U.S. Navy Landing Platform Dock, these ships are amphibious assault ships carrying helicopters, armored assault vehicles, landing craft, and infantry. This past week, as the U.S. and Japan conducted freedom of navigation exercises in the Philippine Sea, the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) launched a 39 aircraft strike package exercise into the Taiwan Air Defense Interdiction Zone (ADIZ) in the vicinity of Taiwan’s Pratas islands.Potential Courses of Action:Most Dangerous Course of Action. China’s most dangerous course of action is a full-scale invasion of Taiwan and the surrounding islands in the first Island chain. These islands would include the remainder of the Paracels, the Pratas, Senkaku, and southern Ryukyu islands. China would likely initiate the conflict with an engineered case for war to be quickly followed up with a multi-domain assault, including cyber-attacks and information operations. China would then employ long-range precision fires to isolate Taiwan from reinforcing the U.S., Australian, and Japanese military forces and hit Taiwanese military and key government nodes and military outposts on the surrounding islands, including the Japanese Self Defense Force and U.S. Marine bases on Ishigaki and Yonaguni islands. Heavy airstrikes from PLAAF strike packages would be used on Taiwan and Japanese defensive positions to support follow-on assault forces. The PLA would then launch a combination of amphibious and airborne assaults on Taiwan and the surrounding islands as well as special operations raids on Taiwanese political and military officials.