text: TODAY’S BRIEFING:READ TIME: 6 minutes, 21 secondsInFocus: The importance of preparednessInside the BeltwayDomestic INSTUMPolitical WarfareGeostrategic INTSUMLow Intensity Conflict Activity Rollup & OutlookInFocus: The importance of preparednessI rarely make recommendations in these reports, however, I want to express my concern about what I’m seeing. I have a strong sense of urgency around the food situation, as I believe challenges will last for years and could worsen substantially next year. I strongly urge you, if you haven’t already, to consider ways to expand your preparedness for at least the next 1-3 years, and potentially much longer. That might be adding to food storage, growing a garden, or building relationships with local farmers, ranchers, and homesteads – maybe all three, as I’m doing. (And even before food, developing sustainable access to clean water is a top priority.) Catastrophic conditions or mass starvation are not in my baseline expectations, but the era of cheap and abundant food is taking a breather. Parts of the United States could face persistent power outages this year (as some already have), food availability will become more constrained, and a recession will complicate political, social, and, obviously, economic, financial, and monetary conditions. I keep an even keel when it comes to “doom and gloom,” I consider the alternative, and recognize that things are almost never as bad as the predictions, however, I have also never believed as strongly as I do now that disruptions to “life as usual” will worsen in the years to come. – M.S.INSIDE THE BELTWAYWHITE HOUSE: President Biden continues to meet with officials at the NATO Summit in Madrid, Spain.CONGRESS: The House and Senate are in recess.DOMESTIC INTSUMFOOD & AG UPDATE: Poor weather and rising input costs continue to suppress crop yields globally. Flooding in the Northern Plains has delayed the spring planting season, leading to a nine million ton reduction in expected corn yields. Many farmers have faced a difficult choice to forgo double cropping (planting two crops in the same field over the growing season), reduce planting, or utilize risky planting methods such as aerial seeding that are expensive and result in lower crop yields. Some farmers have reduced planting acreage, relying on planting insurance payouts to offset financial losses. Agriculture officials say recovery from these conditions will take two to three years. Meanwhile, the USDA grain stock estimate for wheat is the lowest since 2014, down some 22% since last year. (Analyst Comment: This year’s winter wheat harvest is coming in very weak, with about 43% of the total crop being rated as poor or very poor. That’s more than double what we saw last year, when roughly 21% rated as poor or very poor. Unfortunately, spring wheat could be worse after the conditions described above. This is not yet a “catastrophic” development for the U.S., however, it supports previous expectations of higher food prices on shorter supplies for years to come. That said, worsening drought conditions and any number of hazards, including cyber attacks, have the potential to turn bad into worse. My personal recommendation is to develop a long term food security plan, which should include developing relationships with local farmers and meat producers and arranging to buy directly for years to come. – M.S.)