text: Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Friday, 26 August 2022.TODAY’S BRIEFING:READ TIME: 14 mins 56 secondsInFocus: BRICS WATCH: China’s BRICS-Plus Strategy Shaping UpInside the BeltwayDomestic INTSUMGeostrategic INTSUMLow Intensity Conflict Activity Rollup & OutlookInFocus: BRICS WATCH: China’s BRICS-Plus Strategy Shaping UpExecutive Summary:Xi Jinping envisions a China-led global order, and shared that vision at June’s BRICS Summit.China prefers a peaceful revolution against the established U.S.-led global order. Xi does not seek direct military confrontation with the U.S. or its allies, but is prepared to use military force strategically.Cooperation from the “Global South” is key to China’s strategy and may represent this strategy’s center of gravity.A growing pool of BRICS+ applicants provides legitimacy to China’s strategy.This report is available in PDF in the Forward Observer Library and downloadable here: https://forwardobserver.com/library/brics-watch-for-26-aug-22/Chinese President Xi Jinping opened June’s BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) Summit with a question about where the world is headed: “Peace or war? Progress or regression? Openness or isolation? Cooperation or confrontation?”He spent the remainder of his two speeches drawing lines between the Western order – imposing unilateral sanctions and seeking more confrontation, war, and isolation – and the emerging Chinese-led global order, which Xi says will offer global peace, inclusiveness, and cooperation. Xi was very clear in warning BRICS member nations that a U.S.-led world order will lead to more conflict as the U.S. pursues East-West bifurcation and a “bloc mentality” reminiscent of the Cold War. China blames U.S. sanctions for the breakdown of the global food supply and the worsening food crisis, and Xi warned that conditions would worsen if the United States were to retain global dominance. “If such dangerous trends are allowed to continue, the world will witness even more turbulence and insecurity,” Xi said. He underscored warnings from Chinese officials who have repeatedly banged the drum that, after Ukraine, the next U.S.-led salvo will be in the Indo-Pacific. Xi’s message was also clear: falling under the banner of Chinese leadership is the only way to avoid the next war and a worsening global economic crisis.Xi used the conference to paint a picture of what could be under Chinese global leadership, not only for BRICS but for “BRICS Plus” – the constellation of traditionally third world developing and emerging countries partially dependent on continued peace, trade, and global economic growth for its own rising prospects. For the first time, as Xi states, these additional countries were invited to attend the meeting among BRICS Foreign Ministers. This is part of Xi’s strategy to expand BRICS to emerging markets, and it’s paying dividends. Some 50 countries have taken part in BRICS+ talks so far this year. This summer, Argentina and Iran applied to join the BRICS economic alliance, and Argentina has reportedly already been approved to join. That news could come in September during the 8th Annual BRICS Parliamentary Forum. Meanwhile, officials from at least 19 other countries – Algeria, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Egypt, Fiji, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sudan, Syria, Thailand, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Venezuela – have expressed some level of interest in applying. BRICS in 2018 rejected Turkey’s application to join over not being ready to expand. Four years later, BRICS may grow to encompass some Middle Eastern powers, including Egypt, which controls the Suez Canal, and oil-heavy Saudi Arabia. Combine that with China’s interest in the Panama Canal and attempts to develop strategic relationships with Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore – which jointly control the Strait of Malacca – and a picture emerges that China intends to use BRICS+ to exert influence over global trade routes.