text: FOOD & AG: Germany-based fertilizer producer BASF says they’ll cut back on ammonia production due to rising energy costs and disruption to natural gas supply. Another fertilizer company reported that their ammonia production was down 27% for the same reasons. (AC: Ammonia is used in nitrogen-based fertilizers and diesel exhaust fluid, among other chemical products. While this will impact fertilizer availability in Europe into next year, increased ammonia exports from the U.S. will also affect domestic prices and availability. – M.S.) The International Maritime Organization reports only 450 of the 2,000 seafarers needed to resume Ukrainian grain shipments have remained to crew 80 vessels stranded in Ukraine’s southern ports. (AC: If these companies are unable to find workers, expect significant delays to Ukrainian grain shipments. The slowdown also risks spoilage of grains before they can be exported. – R.P.) GEOSTRATEGIC INTSUMARGENTINA ON THE ECONOMIC BRINK, FEARS TRIPLE DIGIT INFLATION: Financial analysts in Argentina forecast the possibility of 90% inflation, or worse, by the end of this year. Inflation is currently running at 64% and is expected to get much worse as the Argentine Peso continues to fall against the dollar. Manufacturing and construction are plummeting since manufacturers cannot reliably quote prices on orders for durable goods, forcing many factories to halt production. Argentina’s Economy Minister resigned last month and his replacement has pledged that Argentina will stop printing money and keep the promises made in an International Monetary Fund debt restructuring deal. That deal calls for austerity measures, which will hurt the 50% of the population that is unemployed or working in the “informal” economy doing odd jobs to feed themselves and their families. (AC: Argentina has exacerbated the situation with heavy sovereign debt and money printing. It is likely the canary-in-the-coalmine for Latin America and if it faces extreme poverty, food shortages and civil unrest, expect that to spread across the region. M.M.)MEXICO’S OBRADOR LABELS OPPONENTS AS TRAITORS: Mexican President Andres Manual Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has labeled political opponents as foriegn operatives financed by the United States. These statements came in the wake of a court decision to freeze work on a tourist railway in the Yucatan due to risk of damage to sensitive archeological sites. (AC: Lopez Obrador has long been seen as a Hugo Chavez in the making. Bolstered by successful elections for his Morena party this year, expect AMLO to continue nationalization of major sectors of the Mexican economy and cementing centralized power. – M.S.)JAPAN INCREASING ASSERTIVENESS IN INDO-PACIFIC: Japan has agreed to participate in next month’s Garuda Shield military exercise alongside the U.S., Australia and Indonesia. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made the announcement Wednesday following a meeting with Indonesian President Joko Widodo. This is the first time Japan’s Self Defense Forces will conduct military exercises in Indonesia. Kishida’s meeting with Joko comes on the heels of Joko’s surprise summit with China’s President Xi Jinping earlier this week. Indonesia and Japan are slated to sign onto a new economic partnership later this year. According to the agreement Japanese automaker Toyota Motor Corp will invest $1.8 billion in Indonesia to manufacture electric vehicles and Mitsubishi Motor Corp will invest about $650 million in Indonesia over the next several years. (AC: Japan has been carrying an increasingly larger diplomatic load for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), the U.S.- led Indo-Pacific security alliance. Japan is bringing significant real investment to Indonesia as well as building greater military ties in what is likely a hard play to beat China at their own game. Indonesia is key terrain in Indo-Pacific trade as it borders the Malacca Strait, the primary transport route for Arabian Gulf oil exports to Asia. -M.M.)