text: After rapidly deploying an estimated 2,500 troops to Kazakhstan, Russia says it will begin drawing down forces in the next 48 hours but is likely to leave behind special operations forces which secured several strategic locations. Russia is likely to continue pushing Kazakhstan for Union State membership, citing their ability to provide diplomatic, security, and stability forces. From a military planning perspective, Russia demonstrated its ability to quickly maneuver a substantial number of forces to a potential conflict zone with little-to-no warning. The Russians will not be able to land military aircraft in Ukraine, but they can bring those assets to the border very quickly to augment the existing force.According to the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Unit, separatist militaries in Luhansk and Donetsk are conducting their own corps-level military mobilization exercises and recalling reservists. Russian military advisers are assisting in tracking down soldiers and reservists attempting to skip the mobilization exercise. This is a significant indicator Russian forces are preparing for conflict in the near term.We’ll discuss this week’s negotiations between NATO, Russia, and the U.S. on Friday as they are ongoing. The bilateral U.S.-Russia talks were not productive and resulted in minimal progress, with Russia’s deputy foreign minister publicly casting doubt on meaningful concessions by either side. – D.M.Indo-Pacific SITREP: CHINA IN CHECKMATE POSITION ON TAIWANTaiwan’s parliament recently passed an $8.6 billion plus-up for its annual defense budget. With the additional funds, Taiwan’s annual defense budget is at a record $17 billion. Lawmakers passed the budget measure specifically to enable the Taiwan military to acquire advanced precision missiles and high-tech naval vessels on a greatly accelerated timeline. The budget also includes locally produced anti-ship cruise missiles as well as attack drones and command and control systems for its Coast Guard fleet. Taiwan is likely concerned with an attack by China in the very near term of 12-24 months based on the size and urgency associated with this budget increase and the focus on immediate fielding of the new systems. Despite Taiwan’s defense acquisition plans, it is unlikely to stop or deter China from military action to retake Taiwan by force.Last week China’s People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLA Navy) completed sea trials for a second Lhasa-class Type 055 large destroyer. Last year, China commissioned three Type 055 destroyers, the Dalian, the Anshan, and the Lhasa. China has eight Type 055 destroyers, each equipped with 112 vertical launch missile cells capable of launching a combination of surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship missiles, land-attack missiles, and anti-submarine missiles. China is rapidly building up its naval fleet, and in addition to the three Type 055 Destroyers, last year commissioned nineteen other naval surface combatants and submarines. The new vessels include two Type 075 Amphibious Assault Helicopter Carriers; seven Type 052D Destroyers; nine Type 056A Corvettes, and; one Ballistic Missile Submarine (SSBN) Type 094. By comparison, the U.S. Navy commissioned seven ships in 2021.For Taiwan to survive an attack by China, it must receive sufficient defensive support before the PLA can consolidate its military objectives. In terms of current inventory, China has more than double the combat forces in the Western Pacific than the U.S. has positioned in the region.