text: U.S. RESPONSEA potential U.S. government response includes immediate call for a ceasefire, attempts to engage in diplomatic dialogue, and severe economic sanctions for Russia. The perceived and actual weakness in U.S. leadership could be the limiting factor during a non-NATO conflict.Potential U.S. military responses on the lesser end of involvement include increasing special operations training of Ukraine’s military (low-visibility weapons delivery) and intelligence sharing. This would not represent a substantial change in current conditions or expansion of Operation Atlantic Resolve. Should NATO countries invoke Article 5 and deploy troops to Ukraine, the U.S. would likely be forced to deploy conventional troops. – D.M.RECOMMENDATIONSThe political climate is likely to worsen substantially with U.S. involvement, as foreign actors ramp up information operations targeting the U.S. populace with anti-American and anti-NATO propaganda. These efforts will likely be amplified by sympathetic domestic actors. U.S. populations would also be targeted with pro-American and pro-NATO propaganda, attempting to build and sustain support for U.S. military action. The promotion of competing narratives will make objective information and analysis increasingly challenging to come by.Americans should find reputable sources of information outside of state-controlled media. Forward Observer is developing alternative dissemination channels in the event of a disrupted information and communications environment.Additionally, a December 2020 report from the U.S. Army warned that peer and near-peer adversaries in a crisis or conflict could use hybrid tactics, which could include protests, cyber attacks, and the use of transnational criminal organizations in the U.S. homeland.These activities are likely to be concentrated around strategic targets, such as military, energy, and government facilities. Americans who live in the vicinity of these targets should take additional safety precautions.The U.S. homeland is also likely to experience a sharp increase in energy prices as import and export operations become prime targets for kinetic and cyber disruption.Readers should consider their material needs, especially those made overseas, and ensure at least a 3-6 month supply, although disruption could last considerably longer.Given the Russian security cooperation agreement with China, the logistics market could also face substantial disruption if Beijing takes action to deter further U.S. involvement.It’s possible that China uses this opportunity to launch a military campaign to take control of Taiwan, as the United States is likely unable to fight a two-front conventional war.International trade and markets could collapse under the weight of geopolitical disruption and potential targeting by military assets along Atlantic and Pacific trade routes.As always, the most extreme scenario is generally the least likely to occur, however, the United States could still experience significant disruption during the most likely scenario. – F.O.LOW INTENSITY CONFLICT INTSUMFar Left Activity Rollup & Outlook