text: Russia-NATO SITREP: U.S. & U.K. TROOPS WITHDRAW FROM UKRAINE, POSSIBLE INVASION ON WEDThe U.S. and nations warned citizens in Ukraine to evacuate again. On Sunday, the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv announced it is suspending consular services due to the likelihood of conflict with Russia. All U.S. personnel may be evacuated within the next 48 hours and the embassy shuttered. Due to degraded security concerns, U.S. military trainers from the Florida National Guard are being sent home by Secretary of Defense Austin. The United Kingdom is terminating its participation in the monitoring mission with the Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe and ordering citizens to depart Ukraine. These are significant indicators that Russia will take military action inside Ukraine as the diplomats and peacekeepers are taken off the board. CBS’s David Martin said, “The U.S. has intelligence that Putin has told his commanders to be ready to go on the 16th, which is Wednesday.” I’m not going to hold my breath on any predictions for this week, but a Russian invasion in Ukraine is likely to spark a series of events across the globe.Satellite observed a reduction in Russian military assets in Soloti, Klintsy, Rechysta, Yelnya, and Pogonovo. The equipment is not being loaded onto railcars and sent back to its home district; instead, it is likely being moved to forward staging and assembly areas. The sudden emptying of camps is consistent with Western intelligence on a possible invasion timeline.Ukraine is requesting emergency diplomatic engagement with the Russians. Conflicting media reports say Ukraine is prepared (or not) to cease its pursuit of NATO membership to appease Russia. This is unlikely as NATO membership remains very popular in Ukraine and would ensure its survival and autonomy. At this point, all diplomatic engagements failed, and at least the Russian Federation appears to have made its decision on Ukraine.A renewed invasion in Ukraine is likely to be preceded by cyberattacks against Ukraine itself but also its European neighbors and the U.S. The increased frequency of warnings from the Cybersecurity Infrastructure Security Agency and the FBI indicate they’re expecting disruptions as well. Double check your family’s plan to navigate through five days of disrupted power supplies, limited financial access, and supply shortages due to panic purchasing. – D.M.Indo-Pacific SITREP: CHINA BUILDING PACT IN INDO-PAC, U.S. FINALLY SHOWS UP TO COUNTER WITH DIPLOMATIC PRESENCEPakistan, with guidance from China, is preparing to conclude a major arms deal with Myanmar. A military delegation from Myanmar’s Directorate of Military Procurement is scheduled to visit Pakistan this week for a pre-shipment meeting and inspection of materials in an arms sale of 60mm and 81mm mortars, grenade launchers, and air to surface missiles for its JF-17 strike fighters. With China’s assistance Myanmar has been refitting its military following the February 2021 coup, which ousted the democratically elected civilian government after its victory in the 2021 elections. The resulting civil unrest from the coup developed into a civil war pitting numerous ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and the former civilian government against the military junta, also called the Tatmadaw. Until recently, China supported both sides in the civil war to contain its fallout and prevent a massive influx of refugees from Myanmar, although China has now thrown its full weight behind the Tatmadaw.