text: Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said that the U.S. economy needs a slowdown to reduce inflation, adding that there are scenarios by which the U.S. can avoid “deep, deep pain” during the process.Boston Fed Bank President Susan Collins said that the Fed has to move expeditiously to bolster its credibility. (AC: Cleveland Fed Bank President Lorretta Mester also said this is why rates won’t be cut next year, presumably during a recession. The Fed sees rising inflation as a greater threat to its credibility than a recession. – M.S.)Chicago Fed Bank President Charles Evans said he expects a slight rebound to GDP growth in the second half of this year. (AC: Several investment banks noted the possibility that very weak growth – something like 0.5-0.8% – will keep the U.S. out of recession. – M.S.)Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neal Kashkari said that the economy isn’t yet fully feeling the effects of rising interest rates, and noted the risk of the Fed “overdoing it”. Kashkari said that the Fed “won’t make the same mistake” of cutting rates after signs of economic weakness. (AC: This is one of the big indicators of a deep recession: the Fed “overdoing it” by continuing to raise rates into an economic slowdown. Chicago Fed Bank President Charles Evans also noted this week that the Fed risks “overshooting” and causing an unintentionally deep recession. – M.S.)Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said that housing prices are still playing a “major” role in inflation. (AC: This is another reason why I’ve been saying the Fed will have to undercut the housing market, which is beginning to happen.- M.S.)San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly said that about half of the country’s inflation comes from excess demand and that supply constraints can be resolved through reducing demand.St. Louis Fed Bank President James Bullard noted the risk of recession and warned that an unexpected macro shock could send the U.S. into a recession. (AC: A geopolitical crisis with China and an escalation or expansion in the Ukraine war are probably the top two geopolitical risks. – M.S.)INSIDE THE BELTWAYWHITE HOUSE: In a first-of-its-kind summit, the White House will host key regional leaders from the Pacific Islands nations this week. The purpose of the summit is to rally support for U.S.-led alliances in the Indo-Pacific. The two-day summit starts on the 28th and will feature a dinner with U.S. President Joe Biden. The Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell said the “goal of the summit is not just to listen, but to put substantial resources on the table.” (AC: The drive to improve U.S. diplomatic relations in the region is due to Chinese expansion into the South Pacific, most notably its broad security alliance with The Solomon Islands which gave China a military foothold in a formerly pro-Western nation. The decoupling of the U.S. and western economies from China has also produced a groundswell of opportunities for smaller Pacific Islands nations who seek to become a “friend-shoring” destination for companies exiting China. If the Biden administration focuses on economic and military agreements instead of climate change and other social justice causes, it may find an entirely new set of friends in the Pacific. – M.M.)CONGRESS: The House is set to vote on an antitrust bill, while the Senate is expected to debate a stopgap funding bill.DOMESTIC INTSUMFOOD & AG: South American soybean producers are undercutting America-produced soybean prices, forcing farmers to move crops to shipping routes as soon as possible and contributing to a backlog that stems from low water levels on many U.S. rivers. The backlog is expected to get worse in coming weeks as drought conditions are forecast to deteriorate. – T.W.HURRICANE IAN: The National Hurricane Center now projects Hurricane Ian, now a tropical storm after crossing over Florida, will turn north towards the Carolinas by the weekend.GEOSTRATEGIC INTSUM