text: Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Thursday, 03 March 2022.TODAY’S BRIEFING:Russian invasion expedites cyber legislationEXXON exits Russian oil and gas businessCold War emerging in logisticsDOJ announces Task Force KleptoCaptureHazards WarningIn Focus: When in Doubt, Zoom Out: A Quick Look at the Strategic Monetary PictureEconomic Warning INTSUMSITUATIONAL AWARENESSRUSSIAN INVASION EXPEDITES CYBERSECURITY LEGISLATION: The Senate passed the Strengthening American Cybersecurity Act with unanimous consent this week. The bill requires private sector critical infrastructure entities to report cybersecurity incidents within 72 hours to the Cybersecurity Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA). Entities will also be required to report ransomware payments within 24 hours. Grant Schneider, former Federal Chief Information Security Officer, stated that considering the Russian invasion, “It becomes harder for anyone to fall on their sword over the nuances of any given provision.” (Analyst Comment: Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) officials have been lobbying Congress for over a year regarding reporting requirements for private industry. The Ukraine crisis provides an opportunity to pass legislation that has previously stalled in Congress. Expect attempts to add additional requirements on private industry, such as cybersecurity standard enforcement, when the bill makes it through the House. – D.F.)EXXON EXITS RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS BUSINESS: Tuesday, Exxon announced it would exit oil and gas operations in Russia valued at $4 billion. The company also said it was halting oil and gas exploration operations as well as its management of large oil and gas production facilities on Sakhalin Island in Russia’s far east. The company, which has been developing its Russian oil and gas fields since 1995, had come under pressure to cut its ties with Russia over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a “special operation.” Exxon has not provided a timeline for halting its Russian operations, although it began evacuating its staff from Sakhalin Island immediately after the announcement. (AC: Although the Sakhalin Island production facility was producing 220,000 barrels per day of oil, Exxon considers its Russian operations to be a small fraction of its overall global business. Russian petroleum products are exempt from the Biden administration sanctions regime; therefore, the Exxon departure will have little impact on Russian oil and gas revenue. It is likely that Japan’s SODECO, which owns a 30% share of the Sakhalin Island business, would take over production management from Exxon. – M.M.)COLD WAR EMERGING IN LOGISTICS: Supply chain analysts believe the global logistics industry is “witnessing the remaking of the world order.” The international effects of war in Europe could rewrite “entire supply chains” as corporate and national security priorities face realignment. (AC: The war in Europe is likely to accelerate existing disruptions to global supply chains. Russia and Ukraine provide key metals and gasses used in technology manufacturing, already beleaguered by shipping and production delays. As sanctions take hold, expect further disruptions in consumer items manufactured overseas. – D.M.)