text: Russia-NATO SITREP: TENSIONS BUILD IN EUROPE, UK SAYS RUSSIA ALREADY ON THE GROUND IN UKRAINEOver the Christmas and New Year holiday season, Russia continued its movement of military assets to its Western and Southern Military District. Additional movements from the Eastern Military District to Belarus include multi-domain forces known as Combined Arms Armies. Specific units are the 5th, 29th, 35th, and 36th Combined Arms Armies which have motorized rifle, air defense artillery, tanks, artillery, rocket forces, and electronic warfare components alongside standard infantry formations. The transfer of units from the East is for participation in “snap military exercises” from 9-20 February, but their position outside traditional training areas indicates they may be used in an expeditionary manner. This morning, the Russian Ministry of Defense released videos of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division mobilizing for “snap exercises” in the Rostov region, around 30 miles from Ukraine. Notably, the video showed soldiers drawing live ammunition from the arms rooms.According to the Congressional Research Service, an estimated 50 to 60 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG) are staged near the border with Ukraine. Open-source analysis of Russian military movements posted to social media places that number closer to 70 or more BTGs. Estimated total Russian forces within striking distance against Ukraine likely exceed 130,000 troops and continue to grow. In addition to the conventional military buildup, Russia is actively targeting NATO members through economic and diplomatic means. Russia’s state-owned gas agency, Gazprom, released a statement on 24 January detailing the lack of natural gas stores and transfers within Europe. According to their release, the continent has a mere 26% of storage capacity filled. Notably, the statement singles out Germany’s storage levels while celebrating “a new absolute record” in gas supplies to China. Gazprom’s manipulation of gas flows will continue to divide and isolate NATO members, particularly Germany, which shut down half its nuclear reactors and is transitioning to renewables supplemented by natural gas. Russian officials stated they would shut down all European gas flows if the U.S. decides to remove SWIFT access, a key bargaining chip for U.S. negotiators.Before the arrival of Russian military units to Belarus, Russian forces were faced with crossing the Eastern frontier of Ukraine up to the Dnieper River. The massive equipment transfer to Southern Belarus makes that geographic feature less of an obstacle as forces will have a northern approach to Kyiv with limited restrictive terrain crossings. Additional sightings of Russian PP-2005 pontoon bridging vehicles indicate the troops are prepared to execute limited bridging operations, potentially in a low-visibility manner inside Belarusian territory. The Russian transfer of Iskander-M ballistic missile units to Belarus provides a range of options for offensive strikes against Ukraine or defense to Union State military units advancing from Russia or Belarus. The missiles have a published range of between 500-3500km (310-2,175 miles) with a high degree of accuracy, can be loaded with either conventional or nuclear warheads, and feature in-flight maneuverability to evade defenses. Belarusian President Lukashenko cites aggression from NATO and Ukrainian troop concentrations near Belarus as the justification for participation in snap Russian military exercises bringing in the majority of the equipment from Russia.