text: Russia-NATO SITREP: NATO EXTRAORDINARY MEETING, UKRAINE SUSPECTS RUSSIAN BATTLE STRATEGY, SENATE DEMS COULD APPROVE NORDSTREAM 2According to a NATO press release, an “extraordinary” meeting of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) with members’ Ministers of Foreign Affairs is scheduled for Friday. “NATO Foreign Ministers will discuss Russia’s military build-up in and around Ukraine and broader European security issue,” according to the press release. This is a significant development within NATO as foreign minister meetings are only held twice a year, and the NAC is NATO’s decision-making body. Allies are likely looking for concurrence on Ukraine, particularly some form of unified sanctions. Secretary of State Blinken held a call with the Bucharest Nine (Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia) to discuss Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine. Blinken called for “a united, ready and resolute NATO stance for the collective defense of Allies.” The call taking place shortly before Friday’s NAC meeting highlights U.S. attempts to assure the security of Eastern European NATO members. A majority of the eastern members support military assistance to Ukraine should Russia invade, which could quickly involve the rest of NATO. The Biden administration is wholly disinterested in sending U.S. troops to fight in Ukraine, instead preferring a blend of sanctions and materiel support. The current U.S. strategy appears more focused on dissuading NATO members from action than Russia.Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense believes Russia has multiple options for invasion. The ministry says all-out war or “creeping occupation” are viable options as the Russian’s have around 220,000 troops capable of either course of action. Ukrainian officials estimate Putin hasn’t made a final decision on invasion or pulling back in light of proposed U.S. and European economic sanctions. The very limited promise of military support for Ukraine plays in Russia’s favor as past economic sanctions did not liberate annexed territories. Upcoming talks between Russia and the West are unlikely to result in a military drawdown as world leaders “check the block” on diplomatic efforts. Asymmetric warfare efforts remain underway across Eastern Europe to prepare for and resist a Russian occupation. Ukraine’s new civil defense law is likely to draw ire and claims of escalation from Russia, despite their ongoing military occupation of Donbas and Crimea.The Senate will vote no later than 14 Jan to sanction Russia’s NordStream 2 pipeline, but Democrats may vote for an alternate proposal. Using the “side-by-side” vote, Sen. Menendez’s (D-NJ) bill will receive the first vote, and Sen. Cruz’s the second. Cruz’s bill will impose sanctions within 15 days of passage, whereas Sen. Menendez’s only sanctions the pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine further. Republicans may use this opportunity to delay Biden appointees’ Senate confirmation. “We can imagine that the Americans will tell the Germans not to buy an ounce of Russian gas through Nord Stream. It may or may not be certified. They can do anything,” the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said. Passage of the Democrat bill is unlikely to dissuade Russia from military action against Ukraine as the Europeans face bitterly cold winters and persistent gas supply manipulation. Russia estimates it won’t receive EU certification until summer 2022 at least, reducing its geopolitical weight in negotiations surrounding Ukraine. – D.M.Indo-Pacific SITREP: CHINA HEATS UP BORDER WITH INDIA, DEVELOPS NEW HYPERSONIC GUIDANCE CAPABILITY, MYANMAR GOES FULL CIVIL WAR