text: InFocus: A look into a worsening NATO-Russia conflictDOWNLOAD PDF REPORTBACKGROUNDFollowing the spring military buildup in Russia’s Southern and Western Military Districts, a complex but relatively predictable series of events are in motion to destabilize Europe. The Russians continue to utilize a combination of military deception operations, information operations, hybrid warfare (economics/migration), and traditional battle preparations (large-scale training events) to degrade and deter a unified Western response. Undermining NATO solidarity is a continuous effort for Russian-backed influence operations, with tailored approaches for governments and citizenry across Europe.Over the summer and fall, Russian energy supplies to European countries slowed substantially, driving up energy prices and preventing adequate supplies for local winter storage. Energy disruptions are a primary point of economic leverage for the Russian Federation to minimize European Union or NATO involvement in Ukraine and Belarus. Russia exercises significant influence over the German government, and Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected a final meeting with outgoing German Chancellor Merkel meant to deescalate the migrant and energy crises.Current winter weather forecasts do not bode well for a unified response to a conflict in Eastern Europe. Weather forecasters note “interior portions of Eastern Europe will be in the bull’s-eye for unseasonably cold air this winter.” Monitors predict “the area at the most risk for temperatures several degrees below normal this winter includes an area from central Ukraine, northward to Latvia and Estonia and as far west as Slovakia and Poland.” Meanwhile, the Russian military remains well-equipped to conduct a winter assault. In contrast, NATO would likely struggle to traverse the continent after winter conditions set in under threat of engagement by Russian long-range precision fires.During the NATO Foreign Minister Summit in Riga, Latvia this week, officials stopped short of promising direct military support to Ukraine, as Ukraine is not a member nation. Individual members continue to express diplomatic support for Ukraine, although some countries like the U.K. and Sweden have military assets on standby in the event of a Russian offensive. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned that “[a]ny future Russian aggression against Ukraine would come at a high price and have serious political and economic consequences for Russia.”Russian military force relocation via rail systems throughout the Western and Southern Military districts are ongoing, and observers note the reduction in commercial rail allocations. Observers suspect the Russian government of blocking open-source research into train car movements, demonstrating a higher degree of secrecy relative to the spring buildup. The expansion of sophisticated information operations is a crucial indicator the Russians are preparing for a kinetic conflict.The border conflict between Belarus and Poland continues to use the plight of Middle Eastern and North African migrants to manufacture a humanitarian crisis. The use of a migrant surge as a hybrid warfare tool prompted the deployment of NATO Hybrid Warfare advisers to the Baltics. Poland rejected the deployment in favor of their organic border security forces. The current influx of migrants is similar to past surges in 2015, likely facilitated by the Russian government. Notably, the British and Latvian military deployed advisers to Poland in mid-November to assist in border wall construction and security operations.POTENTIAL COURSES OF ACTION